To Bug Out or Not to Bug Out, That is the Question

This subject jumps to the highest point in the Personal-Localized-Regional-State-National-Global hierarchy.

A comment to a post made on my private prepper blog stated:

"First of all, what happens after one bugs out? Many scenarios to think about. Here are some, and follow on thoughts:

1) Super Volcano eruption at Yellowstone - would need to move South or North, or West depending on prevailing winds. For massive area evacuation, what is the best route or best hidden routes?

2) Pandemic situation where the epidemic moves inward from our major ports of entry - Would need to move East, South or North.

3) Food, or other socioeconomic situation, rule of law intact - Stay home? start to grow food, using stored food only if required.

4) Food, or other socioeconomic situation, No rule of law - Get away from civilization? (likely would not occur fast and decision where to go, would maybe be clearer as such a situation develops. Also, the time of the year would also influence. Example: If wanted to move North or South, we could get ourselves to the Pacific Crest Trail. We could go to Canada or to Mexico on that trail and it purposely avoids civilization for the most part. Water, fire, shelter.. fine. What about food for the long term? would have to rely on anything one could hunt or catch.

We should research Easterly routes that would get us across the cascades, preferably by vehicle over foot, while avoiding the major highways going over."

Here are some of my thoughts on how to decide if it's time to go.

1. We have to survive whatever event causes us even to discuss bugging out.
2. Regardless of the event, if it is large enough for us to even think about leaving the city, we probably should.  There are hundreds of scenarios that we could come up with.  The central idea of every one of the scenarios is this: flow of goods into the population areas is interrupted.  All scenarios boil down to that 1 reason for leaving the urban area.  When there is no flow of goods into the city, people will start doing really bad things-looting, murder, cannibalism, you name it.  There is enough food on the shelves of grocery stores for about 3 days.  Food and other survival type gear will disappear as soon as everyone realizes its time to horde.  When power goes away, so will water, communications, natural gas, etc.  When hunger and thirst sets in, looting and murder will begin.  People will feel justified in killing their neighbors to feed their children.  Once all the food and water looting is complete, people will result to cannibalism to survive.  It's ugly.  A situation could degenerate to this level in as little as 30-60 days.
3. We should assume help is not coming.  FEMA couldn't get help to New Orleans for literally weeks after Katrina.  We cannot count on anyone but ourselves.
4. Staying in an urban or suburban area in this situation most likely means death.

Here are some of my thoughts on where to go/what to do.

1. We want our primary escape routes to be available to us year round.  We are limited in a western direction by the water.  We are limited in an eastern direction by the mountains, which may or may not be covered in snow.  There is no guarantee that the passes will be clear to vehicles once we decide to leave.  We are limited in a southern direction by the city itself.  The Tacoma - Puyallup - JBLM areas are a bottleneck on the best of days - think what it would be like if people realize they should evacuate the city.  The only real escape route is to the north, and even that has limited choices if we don't decide to leave before everyone else does.
2. The decision to leave should be made quickly.  Once the decision is made to leave, it should be communicated to everyone involved in the plan and executed quickly to coordinated BOL's.  Time will not be on our side.
3. We should have secondary escape routes planned as well.  Over the mountains might be a possibility in vehicles at the right time of year.  It might be a possibility on foot any time of year, assuming that we have the proper gear and the knowledge to effectively use it.
4. A fixed BOL which we own is ideal as a repository for a cache of gear, food, weapons, seeds, etc.  It would allow us to abandon our bug out vehicle and walk to the BOL with our BOB's and still be able to receive support.
5. A fixed BOL which we do not own is still useful, but there is no guarantee of security if we try to hide a cache somewhere.  We might consider renting storage somewhere a bit more remote that could supply us if necessary.  Security of this storage would of course rely on it being kept secret.
6. Whatever we do, we are better off coordinated and together.  The more of us there are, the more we can do to help each other.
7. We should not discount the value of being able to move and hide.  We will never be a force that can handle a mob of people unless we've prepared a strong fixed fighting position.  Frankly, I think we are years from being able to build anything remotely like that.
8. Until we feel like we are safe enough to fix our location and grow food, we must rely on hunting, foraging, looting, or pre-positioned caches.
9. If we learn how to use the nature around us, it can provide our every need.  For me that's a pretty steep learning curve.  I don't know very much at all about edible/medicinal plant identification; hunting, killing, dressing animals; fishing; building shelter; preserving food; etc.  I've read a bit about all of these things, but the skills can only be developed through practice.  It's easier to practice right now when we don't have the pressure of a crisis weighing down on us.
10. After about 90 days, the cities will be mostly devoid of people.  Once populated areas can then become a source of tools and raw materials for us to begin building a settlement from.

This is all doom and gloom stuff.  Will it ever happen?  Who knows?  I personally hope that every preparation that we make for the above is a complete waste of time.  I like the cushy world I live in just fine.  But, I want to live if this cushy world ever turns against me.  The only way that happens is through planning, preparation, education, and networking.

My plan (and believe me, it's in its infancy) revolves around my thoughts above.  I'm open to discussion/suggestions because I think cooperative collaboration is going to help the best plan emerge.

What are your thoughts?